What’s in (and Not in) the U.S.-China Trade Deal
The agreement includes some wins for President Trump, but implementing and enforcing the deal could be difficult.
President Trump’s long-awaited trade deal with China includes some significant changes to the economic relationship between the world’s largest economies.
The agreement signed Wednesday includes some victories for Mr. Trump: China has committed to buy an additional $200 billion of American goods and services by 2021 and crack down on business practices that the Trump administration has criticized. But text of the accord does not provide enough information to determine how it will work in practice, and it is unclear whether China will interpret it differently than the United States.
FULL TEXT OF THE DEAL Read the nearly 100-page document released by the Trump administration.( https://int.nyt.com/data/documenthelper/6667-us-china-trade-deal/b8ef0d1826ca2b48f121/optimized/full.pdf )
China’s $200 billion shopping list includes agricultural products and energy exports
China’s commitment to purchase additional American exports is based on 2017 levels, and includes $52.4 billion of energy exports, $32 billion of agricultural commodities, $77.7 billion of manufactured goods and $37.9 billion of services.
Although American businesses and farmers will be pleased by those commitments, China is only agreeing to make purchases for the next two years and is vague about what happens after. The agreement says the countries “project that the trajectory” of increased purchases would continue through 2025. The shopping list also leaves several open questions: What happens to China’s existing contracts with other countries for products like soybeans? Will the purchases distort commodities markets?
China’s vice premier, Liu He, who signed the deal with Mr. Trump at the White House on Wednesday, said Chinese businesses will buy American goods and services “based on the market demand in China,” suggesting Beijing may not view the targets as so ironclad
Changes could help dairy farmers, beef producers and other agricultural groups
The deal aims to stamp out theft of intellectual property
Getting China to comply with the deal could be hard
Wall Street’s gains appear incremental and it is unclear if the deal will be a boon for all financial firms
China made pledges to be more transparent in currency markets, but many of its promises are in line with earlier commitments
Both the American and Chinese economies have been hurt by the trade war, and this deal could provide some needed relief
REALIZING that it is in the interests of both countries that trade grow and that there is adherence to international norms so as to promote market-based outcomes.
The trade war between China and the United States has weighed on the economies of both countries. The tensions appear to have sent a chill through the United States manufacturing sector. China’s exports to the United States have plunged.
The partial truce struck Wednesday could restore some confidence, and the Chinese purchases will help some sectors of the American economy, but the pact preserves the bulk of the tariffs on $360 billion of goods from China. Administration officials have said that they will not lift those tariffs until the countries manage to agree to a phase 2 agreement. Prolonged strains in the relationship could prompt American firms to spend less in China and vice versa.
The agreement does not address China’s subsidies for favored industries, cybersecurity and other issues
The United States has long had concerns about China’s use of industrial subsidies and state-owned enterprises to build up and dominate crucial industries, like steel and solar panels. But China rebuffed talks on these subjects, and the deal does not address such policies. Other areas that were left out include cybersecurity and Chinese control over how companies manage data storage and cloud computing.
American officials say they will press China to curtail its use of subsidies in the next round of negotiations. The United States is also now working with the European Union and Japan to tackle Chinese subsidies at the World Trade Organization.
Keith Bradsher contributed reporting.
Por: Peter Eavis, Alan Rappeport e Ana Swanson
Fonte: New York Times, em 15 de Janeiro de 2020
Why Trump caved on China
President Trump’s “phase one” trade deal with China is largely a victory for Beijing. Just measure the agreement signed this week against the initial demands made by Washington in a leaked May 2018 document. As the Financial Times concludes, with regard to the central U.S. goals, “After almost two years of negotiations, tariffs and counter-tariffs, Mr. Trump has achieved none of these objectives.” (…)
Por: Fareed Zakaria
Fonte: Washingtonpost, em 16 de Janeiro de 2020